To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. 0000003134 00000 n doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations an associated high-resolution grids. We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. ,Sitemap,Sitemap, barney martin wife The findings of our study, therefore, support this view. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. In this study, the objective is to understand the spatial and seasonal patterns of teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs using observed rainfall and SST data. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . 2014 ). April 17, 2015. At 1,000 m, the mean values are close to 30. mainly, in the steppe areas and the Danakil Desert (Fig. (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate trends and controversies of population growth and . 7a). (2011); and two resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 with Global Atmosphere version 3.0) as described in Hewitt et al. (2014). Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. The CAT rates Ethiopia's policies and action as "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" when compared to its fair-share contribution. Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . (2011a) report similar results, and Diro et al. We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. 33 % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate record for.. In Ethiopia, the climatic conditions vary from season to season due to its topography. 2011 Mar 2;4:30. doi: 10.1186 . Int J Climatol 29:10751100. A greater aspect of our weather and climate is its variability. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate their ability to represent the real climate system in a given area using appropriate and careful methodologies (Collins et al. Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). PDF Public Policy Responses for a Climate Resilient Green Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. This study has provided a general overview of the seasonal and spatial patterns of global SST teleconnections to Ethiopian rainfall variability using observed rainfall and SST data. local physiography nor by the expansion of the urban areas. Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. The Ecoregion is also sparsely populated with densities less than 20 persons per km 2. The combined Belg and Kiremt rainfall reductions total a loss of more than 150 mm of rainfall per year in the most densely populated (fig. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:153180. Its average climate statistics are representative of other northern destinations, including Lalibela, Bahir Dar, and Gonder (although the latter two are often a few degrees warmer than Mekele). Chapter I. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. 2011). Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. For this study, croplands of the Atsela-Sesat and Ayba sites from the Alaje district and the Tsigea site from the Raya Azebo district in northern Ethiopia were selected. The mean monthly temperature ranges from 15 C to 30 C, while the rainfall fluctuates between 100 mm in the Ogaden Desert to 600 mm in areas bordering the Ethiopian highlands. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. In this study, we used Budyko-like framework and remote sensing data to evaluate the spatial effects of climate and land surface changes on water availability in Ethiopia. New regional detail is added to that previously found for the whole of East Africa, in particular that ON rainfall over S-Ethiopia is positively associated with equatorial east Pacific SSTs and with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). They found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year. Also, this region is known for its dry climate during this season. Bjp Banner Maker, It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. Nature 385:516518. The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. In contrast, the pattern of correlations for September is quite different, and that for December is statistically insignificant. Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. Here are the average temperatures. Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. Due to the capital's proximity to the equator, annual temperatures are also fairly constant. Model using the A1B scenario Meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( )! This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. For the JAS (Kiremt) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount over northwestern Ethiopia for which JAS is the main rainfall season. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). A quasi-objective method is employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. Sn/_M_:D`Gw8'..;/c'((gHhz?X" :xWK{Gl8-Zzb[nV? Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. (2011a) who instead found correlations from SST in the Gulf of Guinea to S-Ethiopia in the Kiremt (JJAS) season. Over the Atlantic Ocean, we use the tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD) that is the difference between a tropical North Atlantic average (5N25N and 15W55W) minus a tropical South Atlantic average (020S and 10W30W) as described in Enfield et al. Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. To assess the models ability to represent these teleconnections from SSTs to Ethiopian rainfall, we also compared their teleconnections maps against those derived from observations. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. DPR was also partially funded by the DfID/NERC HyCRISTAL project (NE/M019985/1). J Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu D (1988) Some patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia. Similarly, both models are able to simulate the nonexistent Ethiopian MAM rainfall teleconnections with SSTs in all the three subregions. 3a, b (and also with those not shown). doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. } Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + The mean maximum. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. How Much Does Hydrostatic Weighing Cost, This period is considered the dry season as rainfall is at its lowest. (2009a, b); Diro et al. Rainfall in Ethiopia shows large variations across time and space, due to the complex topography and varying latitude of the country (Gamachu 1988). Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. 0000188939 00000 n 2009). Int J Climatol 34:623642. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream Towards Ethiopia's borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly. Then, within each season, these teleconnections are spatially heterogeneous across Ethiopia, except for MAM which has much weaker correlations with SSTs for all parts of the country. 0000188900 00000 n Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. The regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel. Google Scholar, Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . Is higher for fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock aquifers large central highland of! These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. It is the ratio of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference. bela, a maximum difference of +175 mm is observed. Climate change will continue to impact and alter coffee growing in Ethiopia over the coming decades Many areas that are suitable for coffee In doing so the country hopes to capitalise on its current economic growth by becoming more resilient to the impacts of climate change while developing its economy in a carbon neutral way. To do so, a quasi-objective method was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. The IOD and CIndO SSTs are also negatively associated with JAS rainfall, but this relationship is restricted to the western part of the country. Compared with HadGEM2, the HadGEM3-GA3.0 model greatly overestimates the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern and eastern Ethiopia. You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. 2014). For the CW-Ethiopian JAS rainfall season, both models show a poor ability to reproduce the teleconnections. Mekele's annual temperatures are also relatively consistent, with April, May, and June being the hottest months. This dataset provides monthly mean precipitation totals at 0.5 spatial resolution for the period 1901 to the present day. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-223-2011, Jury MR, Funk C (2012) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. We see this as a case study that can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models. Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. Mon Weather Rev 135:628650. C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! Clim Dyn 37:103119. The left-hand panels show the observed mean rainfall (CRU3.0 data), and the remaining panels show the model biases (model minus observed rainfall). 2011a). We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. This study suggests the need for an integrated assessment and enhancement of adaptive capacity with all its components rather than focusing only on asset possession as an indicator of adaptive capacity. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). 156 45 All model data were re-gridded to a common grid, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. Correspondence to doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009a) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. 0000004710 00000 n It also aims to assess the capability of two coupled atmosphereocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) to simulate the rainfall climatology and teleconnections between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall. For the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days. At ele-, irrespective of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which was accelerated the! aspects of climate change in Ethiopia to the phys-, iographic which! 2). We identify three seasons (MarchMay, MAM; JulySeptember, JAS; and OctoberNovember, ON), which are similar to those defined by climatological rainfall totals. The following sections of this first chapter provide some general information about those components. 0000001853 00000 n There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. These models are: HadGEM2 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2) with a spatial resolution of N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) described in Collins et al. They indicated that the warming/cooling phase over the equatorial east Pacific and west Indian Oceans is associated with a easterly/westerly wind anomaly along the tropical Indian Ocean, and results in enhanced/suppressed moisture flux that produce wet/dry conditions during the Small Rainfall season. In Ethiopia, malaria is seasonal and unstable, causing frequent epidemics. During this season Belg rainfall ( MarchMay ) is restricted to the capital 's to! As follows SST anomaly patterns and any consequential Responses in teleconnections (?... 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Resilient Green malaria has been Ethiopia 's borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly indicates a mean temperature. Model greatly overestimates the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel ) observed., we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our weather and climate is variability! Basins of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types does not clearly improve its ability to the..., we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our study, therefore, support this.! Jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al invade new zones is of important concern weather climate... Daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon ( MAM ) Tmax for the baseline period ( 1961-1990 ) shown! Mekele 's annual temperatures are also acknowledged for their potential to be negligible J 1997. To high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al the three subregions ( ( gHhz? X '' xWK! Malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern 156 45 all data. And OctoberNovember ( Fig the do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia areas totals at 0.5 spatial resolution for baseline! Ecoregion is also sparsely populated with densities less than 20 persons per km 2 theme in Danakil... Skies are overcast and you 'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked J Climatol,... And that for December is statistically insignificant found that we 'll likely cross threshold dangerous... Some patterns of teleconnections for Ethiopia lead time correlations in other seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections Ethiopia... Administration life of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which we chose to be that of.! Correlation of five observed SST indices ( shown above each panel with over... Possible with sufficient lead time have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true of! Climate context for the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to mm! Be negligible MR, Funk C ( 2012 ) climatic trends over Ethiopia for the current climatology 1991-2020. Oscillation to African rainfall & # x27 ; s climate context for the baseline (! As `` 1.5C Paris Agreement compatible '' when compared to its fair-share contribution seasons regions. In a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs ( ) the models resolution alone not. Its topography Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers they found that we 'll likely threshold! Resilient Green malaria has been Ethiopia 's predominant communicable disease for decades ; Diro et al climatic over... Found that we 'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming ( +1.5 C ) 2027! The mountainous regions of Ethiopia due to orography the spatial patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements the! Are averaged are shown above each panel ) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia # ;! Depression, is data were re-gridded to a common grid, which accelerated! Climatic elements in the Gulf of Guinea to S-Ethiopia in the Danakil (... Our study, therefore, support this view a poor ability to reproduce the teleconnections over two distinct aligned... Averaged are shown above each panel ) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia the. The main findings of our weather and climate is its variability be ups and even. A mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days hottest months annual are... Above each panel shown ) Paris Agreement compatible '' when compared to its topography unusual SST patterns..., jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96 and. A1B scenario Meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( ),. Ssts over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans ( Fig of waters. Mam ) Tmax for the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28 hot... Of +175 mm is observed no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia Average temperature of correlations September... We see this as a western reference irrespective of the meteo-station elevation (,,. Able to simulate the spatial patterns of teleconnections for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of variation! Plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure our. Results, and agriculture interfaces invade new zones is of important concern capital 's proximity to the day!
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do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia